Monday, 11 August 2008

UFC Prediction Woes?

So my predictions weren't 100% at the weekend AGAIN! You'd think that if someone calls you an 'expert' you should be right all the time. Turns out that this isn't the case.

Who did I get wrong?

I picked Gamburyan to maul Emerson but Emerson had different plans. As long as they start every fight standing there's always going to be a chance of an early KO. Do I mind getting this one wrong? No, it was exciting so I can't complain. The fact that Gamburyan hadn't been KO'd before combined with his ferocious grappling style made me think he'd take it.

Did I give Lesnar the credit he deserved going into the Herring fight? Probably not. I believe that MMA is an incredibly tough sport to get into and making such a fast transition was going to be tough for him. Herring on the other hand has no quit in him (as we saw Saturday night) and I thought he had the experience and the skill to take it. Props to Lesnar for turning up in shape and with a game plan that maximised his strengths. I'm reading a lot of criticism on forums about 'why didnt he go for a choke or work a sub?' The answer is why risk getting into a grappling match and getting submitted when you could secure a dominant position and pound the heck out of your opponent. GSP didn't try and grapple with Serra in their second match. Even with Serra turtled GSP never tried to take his back preferring to strike with his knees. Do I mind getting this one wrong? Well considering we've just found out that Brock's legit and could be a force to be reckoned with at Heavyweight I cant complain. Still, we've get to see him take a solid shot to the face which could be his undoing.

One of the joys and curses of writing predictions for MMA is that you do get it wrong. Fighters can perform outside of what the 'experts' predict and I for one love it. When a guy (or gal) surprises you with a victory you never knew they had in them you can't be unhappy. MMA isn't pro wrestling (or even boxing) and one of it's strengths is that you still can't always pick a winner. Let's hope it stays that way and keeps 'experts' like me on our toes.

posted by Jim B at Monday, August 11, 2008 << Back To Main Page